The 2026 AFL season is heating up, with just two rounds left to decide the premiers. The race to the top four is intense, with Fremantle, Sydney Swans, Hawthorn, and Brisbane Lions all in contention. The wildcard finals are also shaping up to be a thrilling affair, with Adelaide Crows, Melbourne, Geelong, and Collingwood all in the mix. The season is far from over, and the final ladder positions are still up for grabs.
The Top Four Contenders
Fremantle (18-3, 143.4%)
Fremantle is in a strong position to win the minor premiership, but they need to win just one more game to secure the top spot. They have a 5-10% chance of not winning the minor premiership, but they are likely to finish first. The Dockers lost four percentage points this weekend while losing by four actual points, but they are still in a good position.
Sydney Swans (16-5, 134%)
Sydney is virtually locked into the top two, and they are more likely to finish first than third. They just need to beat Essendon to clinch at least second place. The Swans have a strong percentage, and their loss to Brisbane means they are just one win away from a home qualifying final.
Hawthorn (14-6-1, 118.2%)
Hawthorn is in a strong position to finish third, but they need to win their last two games to secure the double chance. They have a 7% chance of finishing seventh, but they are likely to finish third or fourth. The Hawks lost to Brisbane, but they have a strong percentage and are in a good position.
Brisbane Lions (14-7, 117.8%)
Brisbane is in a strong position to finish fourth, but they need to win their last two games to secure the double chance. They have a 7% chance of finishing seventh, but they are likely to finish fourth or fifth. The Lions demolished Hawthorn and regained their percentage lead over Adelaide.
The Wildcard Finals
Adelaide Crows (14-7, 117.6%)
Adelaide is in a strong position to finish seventh, but they need to win their last two games to secure the double chance. They are likely to finish seventh or eighth. The Crows lost to Fremantle, but they have a strong percentage and are in a good position.
Melbourne (14-7, 107.6%)
Melbourne is in a strong position to finish fifth, but they need to win their last two games to secure the double chance. They have a 7% chance of finishing seventh, but they are likely to finish fifth or sixth. The Demons beat Fremantle and have a strong percentage.
Geelong (13-8, 120.6%)
Geelong is in a strong position to finish sixth, but they need to win their last two games to secure the double chance. They have a 7% chance of finishing eighth, but they are likely to finish sixth or seventh. The Cats have a strong percentage and are in a good position.
Collingwood (12-8-1, 106.4%)
Collingwood is in a strong position to finish eighth, but they need to win their last two games to secure the double chance. They have a 7% chance of finishing tenth, but they are likely to finish eighth or ninth. The Magpies have a strong percentage and are in a good position.
The Lower Half of the Ladder
Western Bulldogs (12-9, 93.9%)
Western Bulldogs is in a strong position to finish ninth, but they need to win their last two games to secure the double chance. They have a 7% chance of finishing tenth, but they are likely to finish ninth or tenth. The Bulldogs have a strong percentage and are in a good position.
Carlton (11-10, 99.6%)
Carlton is in a strong position to finish ninth, but they need to win their last two games to secure the double chance. They have a 7% chance of finishing tenth, but they are likely to finish ninth or tenth. The Blues have a strong percentage and are in a good position.
St Kilda (9-12, 101.6%)
St Kilda is in a strong position to finish tenth, but they need to win their last two games to secure the double chance. They have a 7% chance of finishing eleventh, but they are likely to finish tenth or eleventh. The Saints have a strong percentage and are in a good position.
GWS Giants (9-12, 98.9%)
GWS Giants is in a strong position to finish tenth, but they need to win their last two games to secure the double chance. They have a 7% chance of finishing eleventh, but they are likely to finish tenth or eleventh. The Giants have a strong percentage and are in a good position.
North Melbourne (9-12, 90.9%)
North Melbourne can mathematically play finals, but they need to beat Geelong and Sydney by large margins while hoping results go their way elsewhere. They have a 7% chance of finishing twelfth, but they are likely to finish twelfth or thirteenth.
